Will it be the joy of Six for Wales?

Mar 8 2008 by Andy Howell, Western Mail

WALES could lift the newly-produced Triple Crown trophy by accounting for Ireland today, but not too many realise Warren Gatland’s side could also clinch the Six Nations title this weekend.

It depends on ifs of course, pretty big ones at that: if Scotland beat England at Murrayfield and Italy do what many would regard as the unthinkable by disposing of experimental France in Paris.

But so intriguing has this Six Nations campaign become, nothing can be ruled out for certain.

It’s not beyond Wales to be crowned champions tomorrow and set up a party for everyone back home.

Nor is it beyond the realms of possibility for Gatland’s men to lose heavily against the Irish, as they have so often recently, France to go to town on Italy and England to blitz Scotland.

In that event, Wales’ commanding position at the top of the table, with a two-point advantage over Ireland, France and England and a vastly-superior points difference, could be eroded.

Wales have a 40-point advantage over the Irish, 46 on Les Blues and 53 on the English.

But a 20-point loss at Croke Park this afternoon, with France and England hitting the 40-point mark in their respective matches would create a dream scenario for tournament organisers with a genuine four-way scrap for the title next weekend.

My own ideal scenario is for Wales to clinch their 19th Triple Crown and France to smash the Italians, setting up a mouth-watering winner-takes-all shoot-out between the pair at the Millennium Stadium next Saturday.

However, I’m far from convinced Gatland’s men are going to conquer Croke Park during their first visit to the home of Gaelic sports.

The soundbites coming from within the Welsh camp this week, unless they are a clever ploy to ease the pressure, are a tad worrying, if I’m honest. Great emphasis has been put on the fact that Wales can still clinch the championship even if they are repelled by Ireland in Dublin.

Sure, there is that fallback, but wouldn’t it be much better if the men in red did the Triple Crown and the Grand Slam? That really would be winning the championship in style.

The Triple Crown might not quite mean as much to a New Zealander like Gatland as it does to people from these parts, but any silverware would be welcome and the sooner the better.

True, you can agree with his point that lifting the European title is more important, but, let’s not beat around the bush – this encounter with Ireland is a match of huge significance.

You only have to look at the record book to reach that conclusion. It shows Wales have won just five of their last 21 meetings with the Irish.

Ireland inflicted record defeats on Wales in 2001 and 2002. Search further and you discover Wales have scored just 42 points during their last four visits to Dublin and conceded a mammoth 156.

So, statistically, you wouldn’t give them much chance. Fortunately, however, past results don’t matter too much because it’s about the here and now.

Wales have folded during those recent sorties across the Irish Sea, but, with Gatland and the ultra-competitive Shaun Edwards in charge of the new, no-nonsense coaching set-up, one suspects that won’t happen today.

What concerns me though is the mindset of the Welsh players for the build-up has had a remarkable resemblance to a Heineken Cup weekend. Very often the first objective when Wales’ regions go away in that competition is to keep the score down and secure a losing bonus point.

There aren’t official bonuses on offer in the Six Nations, but Wales have one of a sort in the shape of their prized points difference.

The problem is, if they decide to rely on that, they could come unstuck. It’s a delicate balancing act for Gatland and Edwards.

If Wales lose touch with Ireland, do they order them to play high-risk rugby in the search for tries or opt for conservative tactics in order to keep the score down to preserve some of their points difference?

Yet there should be genuine hope Wales can win in Dublin for the first time since 2000 because they are bang in form, confidence has soared and key players such as Shane Williams, Gavin Henson, Gethin Jenkins, Ryan Jones, Martyn Williams and Jonathan Thomas have been on top of their games.

For Wales to prosper, though, their tight five has to perform. As Gatland stated, “Isn’t that where most matches are won?”

Well ... not all actually! Wales triumphed at Twickenham against England despite being on the wrong end of the statistics and South Africa made it an art form as they lifted this season’s World Cup. However, you have got to more or less hold your own in the tight exchanges. And Gatland is correct when he points to the front five as to the key to whether Wales croak at Croke Park or not.

Ireland’s fearsome driving line-out and sheer physicality shattered Welsh hopes in Dublin in 2002, in 2003 in a World Cup warm-up, 2004 and 2006.

But the Irish have had aerial problems this tournament, hence the call for fit-again forward talisman Paul O’Connell at lock and Rory Best at hooker. It’s almost impossible to be more inaccurate throwing the ball into the line-out than the man he replaced, Bernard Jackman.

Their blindside defence was suspect a fortnight ago against Scotland. A better team, like Wales, would hopefully have spotted it, loaded the blindside and scored tries.

It was very much like Wales’ clash with the Scots this championship, Ireland cruising for much of it in second gear, lifting the pace towards the end of it to pull away.

Today is going to be faster, high in intensity and more physical. Potentially, it’s going to be the match of the championship with the Irish and Welsh backs showing they are capable of stringing together great moves.

If weather conditions are suitable, it could be nip and tuck, a high-scoring thriller. The more Wales remain in it the more chance they have got.

Gatland’s team has come on strong in the final quarter of matches in this championship and will fancy it if they are still within strike range.

But it’s not the end of the match which is the key for me, it’s the start. Welsh confidence has evaporated early on in Dublin in recent years as if someone has flipped a switch.

Ireland will look to pummel Wales from the outset to expose what they sense is a weak under belly. How Wales respond will tell us much about this Welsh team.

I reckon they will give it a big go, but my head says Ireland will be too powerful and come out on top.

But it won’t be a hammering of recent proportions and Wales will clinch the Six Nations by beating France next weekend.

A final twist in a topsy-turvy tournament that will have more swings today.