Wales have got the X-factor!

Jan 27 2008 by Simon Roberts, Wales On Sunday

Chief rugby writer SIMON ROBERTS argues Wales will finally win at Twickenham on Saturday – as long as Warren Gatland gets one crucial decision right

WALES will end 20 years of hurt and beat England at Twickenham next weekend.

Why? The simple answer is because it’s high time Wales put that ridiculous HQ hoodoo to bed.

And the law of averages dictates that Wales’ losing streak since 1988 must come to an end soon.

This is based on more than just a feeling, but on some sound rugby thinking.

God knows Welsh rugby does feelings better than anybody. Nobody lets their passion or emotion get the better of them more than the Welsh.

Thankfully, there are some solid rugby reasons why Wales will storm English rugby’s great citadel.

Two of them are Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards.

Twickers holds no fears for the new Wales coaches. In fact, they have won there more than they have lost. The pair have won Guinness Premiership titles and Heineken Cups at the monolithic monstrosity.

But how do Gatland and Edwards transfer their winning mentality and attitude to this current group of psychologically damaged Welsh players?

A whole generation of Welsh rugby players have grown up not knowing what it takes to beat the old enemy at the converted cabbage patch in West London.

OK, Wales did manage a historic victory over England in London in 1999 – but that was at the old Wembley.

Twickenham is different, though. It has become one of the genuine rugby fortresses of work rugby, unless you are Irish, of course, who seem to win there at the drop of a hat.

Ironically, Gatland’s only major defeat there was with Ireland, but how does he convince his Welsh side they can actually win at HQ?

“I don’t need to convince them,” said Gatland. “These guys have to take some confidence from the regional performances by the Ospreys and the Blues.

“I think the Ospreys’ performance against Gloucester was one of the most comprehensive ever by the regions. The players have to have some belief and confidence that they took on and beat the top team in England.

“They have to ask, why can’t they go to Twickenham and get something out of the game?”

Gatland didn’t mention Wales’ abject capitulation in the 2007 World Cup in France, but it still hangs around his squad like a bad smell.

But one thing Gatland and Edwards, two men who just exude the X-Factor, have managed to do is lift the dark clouds which have surrounded this group of players.

Wales may not exude the strut or the swagger of the Grand Slam of 2005, but a steely resolve and a collective determination appears to have returned to the squad. The days of the ‘individual’ have been replaced by the ‘team’.

That, of course, has been Gatland’s major success, and he has managed it in just over a week. Wales are, more than ever, desperate to prove they are a good side.

The clueless and brainless performances during France 2007 cut this group of players to the core – they know more than anybody else that they blew a golden opportunity.

The desire to make amends has been noticeable all season, with the Ospreys and the Blues, who make up 19 of the 28-man squad, taking some notable scalps.

Bristol, Gloucester, Harlequins, Stade Francais, Bourgoin, Bath and Saracens, have all been beaten by Welsh regions, this season.

Wales will be written off by everyone but they wouldn’t have it any other way.

England are massive favourites, after their World Cup heroics, but this is the first game of the Six Nations and so much can happen on the opening day.

Gatland knows Wales will travel as underdogs to Twickenham, so there is no pressure on him or his team.

His selection for this game will be key.

Most of the side picks itself but his selection at half-back is absolutely critical.

The pressure to pick James Hook (pictured left) will be huge, but in my opinion the young tyro needs to be given time to rediscover his form.

Fitness permitting, Gatland has to give the nod to the experienced Scarlets Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones. He also has to be bold enough to hand Blues rookie Jamie Roberts his first senior Welsh cap at full-back.

But what about England? Gatland and Edwards probably know more about England than they do about Wales.

And they will know a host of important leaders have vanished from this England side.

This is not the same team which reached the World Cup final in Paris last year.

Warriors like Lawrence Dallaglio, Martin Corry, Jason Robinson have gone.

So has the rugby brain of Mike Catt, who also acted as Jonny Wilkinson’s comfort blanket.

All four are England captains and have 275 caps between them and have retired from international rugby.

Even leaders like Josh Lewsey and Andy Farrell have gone from the set-up.

Suddenly England’s Dad’s Army, with all its experience, has gone.

So, a new-look red rose outfit look vulnerable and lightweight and there for the taking.

Who do they turn too when the chips are down, with the likes of Dallaglio and Corry gone?

Brian Ashton, whose coaching credentials were ripped apart by the likes of Dallaglio and Catt after the World Cup, knows the jury is still out on him as England coach.

The pressure is all on Ashton, who has only been a handed a year’s contract by RFU chiefs, to prove he is the right man for England.

Gatland doesn’t have to deal with that kind of nonsense. He is the only man for Wales.

He may claim he is no Great Redeemer or miracle-worker, but that will fall on deaf ears if he can mastermind a first Welsh victory at Twickenham since 1988.

Welsh woes at HQ

2007 England 62 Wales 5

2006 England 47 Wales 13

2004 England 31 Wales 21

2002 England 50 Wales 10

2000 England 46 Wales 12

1998 England 60 Wales 26

1996 England 21 Wales 15

1994 England 15 Wales 8

1992 England 24 Wales 0

1990 England 34 Wales 6

1988 ENGLAND 3 WALES 11

Six Nations Fixtures

Saturday, Feb 2

2pm Ireland v Italy

4.30pm England v Wales

Sunday, Feb 3

3pm Scotland v France

Saturday, Feb 9

2pm Wales v Scotland

5pm France v Ireland

Sunday, Feb 10

3.30pm Italy v England

Saturday, Feb 23

3pm Wales v Italy

5pm Ireland v Scotland

9pm France v England

Saturday, March 8

1.15pm Ireland v Wales

3.15pm Scotland v England

Sunday, March 9

4pm France v Italy

Saturday, March 15

2pm Italy v Scotland

3pm England v Ireland

5pm Wales v France