How Wales will face the new year challenges

Jan 1 2008

ENTREPRENEURS who devise ways to help people save money stand to do well in 2008.

Anxiety about the housing market, greater fears of unemployment and scarcity of credit will spur consumers to cut spending – which will present businesses with new challenges – but also opportunities.

Russell Lawson of the Federation of Small Businesses said, “I used to work for a firm that sold parts for cars. During the last recession they did very well because people were more likely to spend money on doing the service themselves rather than take it to a garage where it would cost a lot more.”

The popularity of price comparison websites showed, he argued, that consumers were quick to adopt money-saving technologies.

Mr Lawson said household budgets would be further squeezed by higher utility bills and council taxes. Many businesses will also face increased raw-material costs.

He said, “The fact there is a lot of construction going on in China means material costs will go up in the UK.

“It’s important we keep interest rates low to maintain some kind of spending power.”

Naeem Amir, who runs recruitment consultancy Accountancy4U, said, “The biggest concern for me is unemployment. If there is a slowdown there will be redundancies [and] companies won’t recruit... This is my lifeline. ”

Economist Dylan Jones-Evans said falling house prices could make it more difficult for entrepreneurs to obtain the equity they need to launch businesses.

“The role of an organisation such as Finance Wales will become even more important.”

Wales, he argued, needed special support, with Government having a duty to address “market failure”.

CBI director general Richard Lambert said 2008 would be a difficult year for the British economy, but that it was important not to exaggerate the risks and talk the UK into a more serious downturn.

Expecting a “soft landing” rather than a crash, he noted that 60% of mortgage borrowers have more than £100,000 of equity in their homes, compared to less than 10% in 1993.

He argued this would give a “comfortable cushion to fall back on if times get tough”.

Music

WHILE our classical stars like Katherine Jenkins and Paul Potts are set to continue taking the charts by storm this year, there’s only one name in the pop world on everyone’s lips – Duffy.

The 22-year-old, pictured, from the tiny village of Nefyn in North Wales recently released her debut single Rockferry and she’s set to follow it up with a second single and an album. She also has a wealth of tour dates in her diary.

Amy Ann Duffy, to give her full name, has already been compared to such legends as Dusty Springfield and Aretha Franklin.

Radio 1 DJ Huw Stephens said, “She should be massive by the end of 2008. I hear a bit of Cerys (Matthews) in Duffy’s voice, in that it’s big, beautiful and hypnotic.”

Although he didn’t win The X Factor, Rhydian Roberts has signed a record deal and is expected to be even bigger than winner Leon Jackson.

Mel Knight, presenter of the Breakfast Show on Red Dragon FM, said, “I definitely think there’s a gap in the market for his type of sound, he is incredibly unique. His long-term success, though, depends on what happens with his first album. It would be terrible if he just rushed out an album of tacky covers. He should take some time out, like Leona Lewis, and come back with something really strong.”

As far as Katherine Jenkins is concerned, following her pairing with Darcey Bussell this year for the Viva La Diva! tour, theatre and music critic Mike Smith believes she will try out other partnerships as she continues her reign as cross-over queen.

“That other TV natural, Lesley Garrett, could well find herself hosting an opera fame academy – maybe with Paul Potts in there somewhere too as he cashes in on his couple of years of fame,” said Smith.

He also believes there will be plenty of new opportunities for Bryn Terfel. Although the bass baritone is taking a year off opera – apart from a leading role in Welsh National Opera’s Falstaff – Smith believes audiences will see him in a new light with plenty of TV work.

He also predicts WNO will appoint a new musical director with less input than Carlo Rizzi enjoyed and there will be more scheduling of home-grown singing talent and fewer celebrity producers.

As far as festivals are concerned, one very special music event happening in Wales in 2008 is the 25th anniversary Menuhin Competition. Founded by the legendary Yehudi Menuhin in 1983, it is the world’s leading international competition for young violinists.

Politics

UNEXPECTED events apart – and who can predict those? – the main political focus in 2008 will be the economy.

After eight years of above-inflation public spending increases, tough times are on the way – both from Westminster and from Cardiff Bay.

This will result in extra pressure on Gordon Brown, who has probably passed the point of no return in terms of popularity.

There will be significant rebellions from Labour backbenchers over such issues as the length of time terror suspects can be held without charge, all of which will diminish the Prime Minister’s standing and add to his woes.

After the farcical non-election of 2007, there will certainly be no general election in 2008. Instead, we will have in Wales council elections which will probably result in more losses for Labour and – because of the split nature of the opposition – more local authorities with no overall control.

The scandal surrounding Labour’s donations will resurface in a big way, almost certainly with criminal charges. Peter Hain’s “administrative error” in failing to register at least two donations to his deputy leadership campaign will come back to haunt him. Whether he loses his job as a direct result of “donorgate” or not, the chances are that he will leave the Cabinet at the next reshuffle. This could have serious consequences for the devolution process, especially, as is likely, if he is replaced as Welsh Secretary by someone less sympathetic to the Assembly’s aspirations.

With the knowledge that 2008 will be Rhodri Morgan’s final full year as First Minister – in his own New Year message, he says it will be “a momentous year for Wales” – we can expect the contenders for the Welsh Labour succession to raise their public profiles. As Finance Minister, Andrew Davies will take much of the flak for the impact of spending cuts following the tight financial settlement. Without any spending portfolio, this gives something of an advantage to Carwyn Jones, whose joint roles of Counsel General and Leader of the House are unlikely to land him in controversy.

Internationally, the focus will be on the American presidential election, which takes place in November. The departure of George Bush could mark the beginning of a new era, with withdrawal from Iraq a real possibility. With a weak set of potential Republican opponents, and with her own campaign well funded, Hillary Clinton has the best chance a woman has ever had of making it to the White House.

Weather

We can expect a rather cold winter across Wales, especially compared to the relatively mild winters over the last decade or so.

January

Wet and windy, with short cold snaps, which may well see some rain turn to snow at both higher and lower ground levels.

February

A really chilly month, with accumulations of snow at the start and the end of the month. Disruption to transport and schools is likely. Bitterly cold spells will mean harsh frosts and icy driving conditions.

March, April, May

Spring will arrive early, with temperatures showing a smart recovery after February. There will also be spells of wet and windy weather.

We can look forward to decent spells of fine weather with above-average temperatures, which will help the often bemused Welsh wildlife of 2007 back into a semblance of normality.

June, July, August

We will see no repeat of the floods of 2007 – that was freakish – and I expect the weather to behave more in line with the British summers we’ve become accustomed to.

There should be a fair mix of dry, bright, and sunny weather, but also overcast and humid conditions, with some rain. However, late July and early to mid-August will see a crop of thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding.

August will also generate the highest temperature of the year.

September, October, November

A mild but predominantly wet time, with frequent windy conditions. There may also be tornados, especially in coastal regions.

December

An unsettled but mild start will give way to a colder mid-month, with sunshine by day and harsh frosts by night. At present, there is a 35% chance of a White Christmas.

Jonathan Powell is head of forecasting at Positive Weather Solutions

Sport

THERE is much to be optimistic about as Welsh sport moves into 2008, with our boxers firmly on the world map, a glut of prodigious footballing talent emerging, the Beijing Olympics almost upon us and a new dawn about to break in Welsh rugby.

There will be no Welsh representation in the European football championships in Austria and Switzerland in June but Wales coach John Toshack has the makings of what could be a golden generation.

The talents of Chris Gunter, Joe Ledley, Lewin Nyatanga, Gareth Bale, pictured, and Wayne Hennessey are firmly established despite their youth, and names to watch out for are Cardiff City’s 17-year-old Aaron Ramsey and Man City’s 18-year-old striker Ched Evans.

If Cardiff City’s decent Christmas run continues, a play-off place might just be within their grasp. But they are £24m in debt and have the threat of administration looming.

Swansea City are racing clear at the top of League One and in all likelihood will share Championship status with the Bluebirds come August. Wrexham are in dire straits and may no longer be a football league side come May but could this be the year that Newport County break into the Conference?

The national rugby side has a lot to do to pick itself up from a woeful 2007 but, in coach Warren Gatland, they have the right man to do it.

The Blues and the Ospreys look primed to do well in the Heineken Cup in the coming months and there is plenty of new talent coming through.

Joe Calzaghe will sign off as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in history but fans begin the year hoping he faces Bernard “The Executioner” Hopkins before he goes.

Meanwhile, Enzo Maccarinelli will face Londoner David Haye on March 8 in a fight to rival the Eubank-Benn battles of the 1990s.

Off-spin bowler Robert Croft will spend at least one more summer at Glamorgan’s Sophia Gardens, the redevelopment of which is scheduled for completion in March.

The Millennium Stadium will host the British Speedway Grand Prix and the Wales Rally GB.

In August the focus will be on Beijing where Wales’ athletes will go for Olympic medals. Cyclists Nicole Cooke and Geraint Thomas, swimmer David Davies, rowers Tom James and Rebecca Rowe, British No1 badminton player Richard Vaughan, and runners Tim Benjamin, Christian Malcolm and Rhys Williams are all hoping for success.

Film

I’ve got high hopes for 2008 after what turned out to be quite a disappointing 2007 at the cinema.

The start of the year is always a good time for films, because of the Oscars in February. Directors like to get some of their big films out right at the start of the year in order to hopefully be considered for an Oscar.

No Country for Old Men, the latest film from the Coen brothers, which comes out on January 18, sees a return to their older, original form and it’s been tipped to attract the attention of the Oscar judges.

Sequels have a big part this year with the resurrection of characters like Indiana Jones, John Rambo, Terminator and the next Star Trek film.

Although these films will have a lot of publicity it is not a certainty that they will be any good, so it will be interesting to see if they can live up to all the expectation.

Of all them I am probably looking forward to Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull the most. It will be nice to have that back. Harrison Ford is getting on a bit now but hopefully he will do a good job of this one.

JJ Abram’s New York disaster flick Cloverfield looks like it is going to be good and has got a lot of people talking. He’s the director of the television series Lost and films like Mission Impossible, so the film should look great.

It’s shot using hand-held cameras from the viewpoint of survivors, which is a lovely idea and something not seen in the cinema for a while.

The Iron Man is one of the few action heroes not to get the Hollywood treatment yet so that will be the big super-hero film of 2008, followed closely by Ed Norton as The Incredible Hulk.

They’ve assembled an all-star cast for The Iron Man so that will definitely have a lot of hype around it. Hopefully it will live up to expectations because the story itself is very good.

Probably the darkest film of 2008 will be Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd. It’s great to see him collaborating with Johnny Depp again and Helena Bonham Carter will definitely bring a lot to the film.

Gary Slaymaker is the Western Mail’s film critic