Why victory for Boris should leave Labour very worried indeed

Mar 29 2008 by Tomos Livingstone, Western Mail

IF THE Tories win the next election, the battle will have been won at the supermarket checkout, not in the Commons or in the media.

The party believes it is on to something when it accuses Labour of making life more difficult for middle and lower-income families, and is striving its utmost to ensure those voters make the link between a tighter household budget and the Government’s policies.

If they can persuade enough of them that it’s all Labour’s fault, the Tories are likely to win, hence the increasing references to the cost of living from Tory politicians.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan was at it this week, bemoaning the rising cost of eggs, bread and milk.

David Cameron spent much of Prime Minister’s Questions complaining it was costing more and more to fill up the car with petrol. Perhaps he’s not cycling as much as he was when he first became party leader.

There is something of a risk in their argument, which means they have to get the nuance exactly right for it to work. If they concentrate too much on the economic situation in general, it plays too closely into Gordon Brown’s hands. He can strike back by accusing the Tories of having no real economic policies (not far from the truth): see his line at PMQs about Mr Cameron failing to understand “basic arithmetic”.

The Prime Minister hopes voters will judge that his experience is a better bet in difficult times than the untested Mr Cameron. So the Tories need to go for the specific rather than the general – eggs and milk rather than fiscal drag or taper relief on capital gains. And they are on to something, of course. Prices are rising, as is council tax and duty on cars, alcohol and cigarettes. People notice, and cast around for someone to blame.

That puts an opposition party in a strong position, hoping voters will turn against the Government without worrying too much about the alternative. If the cost of living keeps going up, Mr Cameron will reason, there is little need to set out too-specific plans for Government.

An interesting test of voters’ willingness to take a risk because they dislike the incumbent is coming up on May 1. Londoners know that Tory Boris Johnson has a reputation as a buffoon but the polls suggest discontent with Ken Livingstone will be enough for the man who once failed to win in Clwyd South to take control of Europe’s biggest city.

Some in Labour think a Johnson win won’t be such a bad thing, with the Tory mayor bound to make errors that will damage his party in the run-up to a general election. But if the message is that voters are willing to vote for change without being too bothered what the change is, Labour should be very worried indeed.